Guides / Strategy
ProStrategy6 min read
Bankroll management and the Kelly criterion
Time saverKelly says stake f = (bp - q) / b where b is net odds, p win probability and q = 1 - p. If the result is zero or negative, do not bet. Most pros use a fraction of Kelly to cut variance.
What Kelly means
Kelly maximises long-run growth of a bankroll when you have a genuine edge. Betting more than Kelly increases risk of ruin without adding growth.
Negative-EV games
In standard casino games with a house edge Kelly returns zero or less. The honest answer is that no stake is optimal. Bankroll rules there are about managing entertainment cost.
Practical limits
Use half or quarter Kelly because your probability estimates are never exact. Set a stop-loss and a session budget before you begin.
Educational content, not financial or legal advice. Gambling involves risk. 18+.
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Expected value: the one concept that explains everything
Time saverEV = sum of (probability x outcome). A game has positive EV only if you hold an edge. Use EV to compare bonuses, bets and game choices before you play.