Guides / Strategy
ProStrategy5 min read
Expected value: the one concept that explains everything
Time saverEV = sum of (probability x outcome). A game has positive EV only if you hold an edge. Use EV to compare bonuses, bets and game choices before you play.
The formula
A $10 straight-up bet on single-zero roulette: 1/37 x $350 + 36/37 x (-$10) = about -$0.27. That is the 2.70% edge as a dollar figure.
Bonuses
The same logic prices a bonus. Bonus value minus expected loss on the required turnover gives you its EV. Our Bonus Cost calculator does the arithmetic.
Variance
EV says nothing about how rough the ride will be. Pair it with a volatility estimate, which the Bankroll Simulator illustrates.
Educational content, not financial or legal advice. Gambling involves risk. 18+.
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